EPOW - Ecology Picture of the Week

Influence diagram model of resource scarcity and social conflict

Explanation:   Last  week we saw a superb sunrise in a sobering moment of clarity of resource scarcity in a crowded land.   This week we explore some of the links that can lead to extreme conflict caused by resource scarcity, if not moderated by careful choices.  

This week's EPOW is not a photograph.  It is a simple model of how resource scarcity could lead to increasing social conflict.  Study this flow chart.  Each box can be represented by many examples in the modern world.  Each arrow speaks of a slide to a more extreme condition ... that is, IF we do not counter it with positive social policies and personal choices.

For each box, there can be a remedy, in most cases only temporary.  The ultimate answer is to address the full array of causes and conflicts all at the same time... to look to problems and act on solutions of health, food, cultural identity, resource availability, personal tolerance, education, and ecosystem integrity.  

In this way, positive actions can serve to provide incentives for change.  An example is to provide subsidies for agricultural activities that have greater yield and less adverse per capita environmental impact.  Many examples of tax incentives have been proposed.  

How would you revise this flow chart to represent such incentives and a positive future for us all? 

Information:  Of course, the model presented here is but one way to represent environmental and cultural conditions, and my purpose is obviously to emphasize the negative "slides" to conflict in order to stir positive thinking and action.  Many other models have been proposed by others over the decades from many fronts -- environmental economics, technical innovation, environmental engineering, political science, agricultural development, etc.

References:  
     Hughey, K. F. D., R. Cullen, and E. Moran. 2003. Integrating economics into priority setting and evaluation in conservation management. Conservation Biology 17(1):93-103.
     Maxwell, J.W.  2000.  Resource scarcity and conflict in developing countries. Journal of Peace Research 37(2):301-322.
     Vogt, K. A., M. G. Andreu, D. J. Vogt, R. Sigurdardottir, R. L. Edmonds, P. Schiess, and K. Hodgson. 2005. Societal values and economic return added for forest owners by linking forests to bioenergy production. Journal of Forestry 103(1):21-27.